NZ Housing Market in October 2026: Buyers Set the Price

Cotality’s Monthly NZ Housing Chart Pack for October 2026 is the national report. The figures in it are September’s. We don’t try to recount every house sale in the country. We look at do-ups. Which listed houses still show a modelled margin when buyers can wait, and most vendors don’t have to sell.

How should you read these two sets of numbers?

Cotality counts agent and private sales across New Zealand. Its value series is the Home Value Index, unless a chart says otherwise. We count listings that passed our filters. The tables below also need a composite score. Asking price is the price on the listing. Sold price is the price we captured when the listing was marked sold.

• National report: Cotality chart pack, October 2026, using September 2026 data.
• Our listings: active, passed, and scored on the morning of 22 October 2026.
• Under $750,000 is the range in the value-add note. Renovation spend is a larger share of the buy there.
• 15% flip ROI and 9% gross yield are the same targets as how we score listings.
• sold_at is the time we noticed a sale. It is not Cotality’s settlement month. Don’t line our sold listings up with the 6,519.

What did September sales actually do?

There were 6,519 property sales in September. That is 13.6% fewer than September 2025. Cotality’s summary rounds it to about 14%. It is the ninth drop in a row. Over 12 months there were 87,920 sales. That is 4,150 fewer than the December peak of 92,070. The market is slower. It is not shut. Buyers are cautious. They are still buying.

Values eased. They did not fall hard. The Home Value Index dipped 1.3% over the three months to September, and 1.3% over the year. From the peak, the national drop is 18.5%. Over those three months Auckland was down 1.8% and Christchurch was up 0.3%. Over the year Auckland was down 3.2% and Christchurch was up 3.4%. From the peak, Wellington is the weakest main centre, down 27.7%. Christchurch is the smallest drop, at 1.2%. Cotality still describes Tauranga, Christchurch, and Dunedin as showing modest annual growth. The national figure hides that split. If you are buying in Auckland, don’t borrow Christchurch’s year.

Choice is the other half of this. Cotality puts 28,529 properties on the market. A year ago it was 29,060. The five-year average is 27,258. That is high for the time of year. It matches 2024 and 2025, and it is well above 2021–23. New listings in the four weeks to 4 October were 9,896. Last year that stretch was 10,742. The five-year average is 9,864. Spring has brought the usual new listings. It has not cleared what was already there. Most regions are a bit down on a year ago. Gisborne is Cotality’s example of a region where stock has risen. Southland and the West Coast stand out for how far stock has fallen from last year’s high. In our listings, those cheaper regions are not where the 15% flips show up.

Vendors can mostly wait. Cotality says unemployment has risen because more people are in the labour force, not because of mass job losses. So most owners are not forced to sell. Buyers can negotiate. Sellers can sit. That is why prices ease, rather than fall off a cliff. A flip that only works if the next buyer is desperate is the wrong flip.

What does a mortgage rollover do to a hold?

The rate that matters is the one you roll onto, not the one you are leaving. Reserve Bank figures for September, as shown by Cotality, put the one-year high-equity special at 4.97%. The two-year special is 5.27%. Those are the terms new borrowers are choosing. The average rate on existing fixed loans is 4.80%. That sits under both. A rollover now costs about 0.17 percentage points more on one year, and 0.47 on two years. When Cotality says costs can rise by as much as 0.5%, that is the two-year gap. It is not a new fee.

About 54% of existing mortgage value is fixed and due to be refixed within 12 months. About 25% comes up within six months. Another 10% is floating. Some of those loans are still coming off older, higher rates, so the new rate may be lower. Borrowers who fix for longer, as cover against further rises, are the ones whose cost creeps up. For a rental, test the special in front of you. Don’t test the rate on the loan you already have.

The Official Cash Rate is 2.75%. It was set on 2 September 2026. Checked on 22 October, the Reserve Bank’s page lists the next update for 2:00pm on 28 October. Cotality’s pack was written before that meeting. It says another rise may be on the cards next week, and that a December rise looks likely before a fresh look in the new year. The Bank’s September decision says further increases this year may be needed. Later calls depend on inflation and the economy. Both of those are forecasts. This note does not record an October rise, because none had been released that morning. The September outlook already said to run the numbers above 2.75%, not to wait for a cut.

Where do first-home buyers sit in this market?

First-home buyers were 29.5% of purchases in the September quarter. That is a new record for a quarter. The June quarter was 28.3%. Cotality’s summary also says the share has recently gone to 30% or above. The number of first-home purchases is no longer rising as steadily as the share. Use 29.5% when you mean the quarter. You see it from the main centres through to smaller towns. Many of those buyers use KiwiSaver for part of the deposit, and the banks’ low-deposit allowance. Some are leaving a rent that costs more than a mortgage.

That is why the resale case still sits under $750,000. You are selling the finished house to the buyers who are still purchasing. People moving house stayed under 25% of purchases. That is low by past standards. Cotality links that to job uncertainty, and to the Iran-related jump in fuel and inflation. Mortgaged investors were 22.9% of September-quarter purchases. Their long-run average is about 24–25%. July’s 24.1% in our August market note was one month. It is not this quarter. 22.9% does not mean investors have left. It is also not a reason to pay more.

Cotality notes two election lines that may stir some investor interest. Labour has said it will keep 100% interest deductibility. ACT has proposed removing tax ring-fencing on property losses. Those are campaign lines. They are not cash flow you can put in the numbers, and they are not a law change recorded here. Use today’s rules. The capital gains tax note for traders covers the tax settings that already exist. On lending, Cotality says owner-occupier high-LVR borrowing is still well under the 25% cap, and first-home buyers are the ones using it. The investor speed limit rose from 5% to 10% on 1 December, and a bit more low-deposit investor lending has followed. The page does not give the year for that December date.

Have rents and yields actually turned?

Rents look like they have stopped falling. They do not look like a boom. Stats NZ’s measure of new tenancies rose 0.9% in the year to September. MBIE bond data rose 0.3% over the three months to August, compared with a year earlier. Cotality calls that the first rise in well over a year. The same page says a sharp lift is unlikely. Net migration is still soft, even if it is rising, and more houses have been built. Gross yields have sat in the high 3%s nationally for a few years. Values and rents have both drifted, rather than snapped one way. Auckland and Wellington still have the lowest yields among the main centres. Tauranga and Christchurch are both 3.9%, which Cotality puts on the national average. Hamilton is 4.0%. Dunedin is 4.4%.

That is the yield story if you plan to hold. You will not find a 9% gross yield in a national figure in the high 3%s. You will not find it in Hamilton at 4.0%, or Dunedin at 4.4%, either. Higher mortgage specials squeeze the cash flow again. If the deal only works because you hope rents jump and the cash rate falls, leave it.

How many scored listings still reach 15%?

On 22 October 2026 we had 917 active scored listings with an asking price at or under $750,000. The median ask was $475,000. The median modelled value after renovation was $576,000. The median renovation estimate was $90,000. The median composite score was 55.7. The median modelled flip ROI was −3.9%. The median modelled gross yield was 4.6%. Seventy-seven listings still reached 15% flip ROI. None reached 9% gross yield. Seventy-seven modelled at least 6% gross yield. That is a different group from the flip listings. Don’t treat them as the same 77 houses.

There are fewer scored listings above $750,000 because the model is built for the sub-$750k value-add case. The comparison still matters. Almost all of the 15% listings are in the cheaper range: 77 against 5. The modelled yield is higher there too, 4.6% against 3.5%. It is still nowhere near 9%. The median flip ROI above $750,000 is less negative, −0.8% against −3.9%. That does not make the dearer listings the place to look. Five listings at 15% is not a market.

On 28 August the same count was 1,001 scored listings at or under $750,000, and 76 at 15% flip ROI. The median modelled flip ROI then was −3.5%. By 22 October there are fewer listings, 917, and the 15% count is 77. The median modelled return got slightly worse, not better. A higher median composite, 55.7 against 50.6 in August, is not a pile of new deals. The composite score and the 15% target are different tests. On the 917, the verdicts were 10 Strong Buy, 488 Buy, 376 Maybe, and 43 Pass. The strategy label said FLIP on 133, and FLIP_WITH_SUBDIVISION on 9. Of those, 71 and 6 are inside the 77. Use 77 as the count that matters. The label can say FLIP below 15%.

Which renovations still reach 15% flip ROI?

Of the 917, moderate renovations are now the larger group. There are 499 of them. The median reno cost is $132,000, and 26 reach 15% flip ROI. Cosmetic work is 338 listings. The median reno cost is $39,500, and 48 reach 15%. Major work is 58 listings, and one reaches 15%. A full gut is 10 listings, and one reaches 15%. No real work is 12 listings, and one reaches 15%. On 28 August, cosmetic work was the larger group. The mix has shifted towards bigger jobs. The 15% results have not. Light work, without a long consent, is still what stacks up in a market with buyers who can wait. That is the same point as the bang-for-buck renovation note. With 28,529 listings on the market, a vacant gut does not pay you to wait.

What did these listings actually sell for?

From 4 April 2026 through 22 October 2026 we recorded 4,130 listings that had passed our filters, then sold, with both a sold price and an asking price at or under $750,000. The median ask was $499,000. The median sold price was $510,000. The median result of each sale against its own ask was −0.5%. Those are different measures. The median sold price can sit above the median ask, while the typical listing still sells a fraction under the price it was listed at. 2,101 sold below the ask. 2,029 sold at the ask or above it.

The median sold price sat 16.1% below the modelled value after renovation. That is the after-repair figure doing its job. It is the renovated sale, not the sale of the house as listed. If the flip only works because the next buyer pays the renovated price without the work, it is not a flip. 706 of those sold listings had a modelled flip ROI of 15% or better while they were still for sale. A passing score gets you to the front door. It is not the price you will clear. The same count ending 27 August was 3,515 sales in the August note. This period is longer. The higher count does not mean sales sped up. And sold_at is when we noticed the listing had gone. It is not the month Cotality would count the sale.

Where are the listings that reach 15%?

On 22 October 2026, among regions with at least 15 scored listings under $750,000, the 15% results sat mainly in Wellington, Canterbury, and Auckland. The cheap regions were not where they clustered. Southland had 53 scored listings in that range and one at 15%, with a median modelled ROI of −9.8%. The West Coast had 29, and two at 15%, with a median modelled ROI of −17.3%. A low asking price is not a deal.

What does this mean if you flip or hold?

The buyer you sell to is a first-home buyer. It is not someone moving house, and it is not a mortgaged investor chasing yield. Cotality’s 29.5% share is why it still makes sense to stay in the price range those buyers can actually pay. The sale you are aiming at, once the work is done, is an owner-occupier sale. It is not an investor bidding the rent. The flip or hold note from August makes the matching point. When prices are flat, a short hope is where people lose money.

Hold only if the cash flow works on today’s rent, and on a rate above the September specials. The 28 October OCR decision is still in front of you. The median yield on these listings is 4.6%. That beats the national high 3%s because the asking prices are lower. It is not 9%. None of the 917 got there. A hold that needs a rent spike, or a cash-rate cut, is a hope. It is not a number.

Flip only if the margin is in the buy. Seventy-seven listings modelled 15% or better. The median of the 917 was −3.9%. Sold listings in the same asking range went for a median 0.5% under their own ask, and a median 16.1% under the modelled value after renovation. Cosmetic work still accounts for most of the 15% results, 48 of 77, even though moderate jobs are now the larger group. National values are only 1.3% lower over the year, and still 18.5% under the peak. The gain you can count is the one you build. Auckland’s year was −3.2%. Christchurch’s was +3.4%. Don’t use one for the other.

Sources

• Cotality (CoreLogic NZ) — Monthly NZ Housing Chart Pack, October 2026 (September 2026 data: sales, Home Value Index, listings, who is buying, rents, yields, and mortgage rates)
• Cotality NZ insights
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand — Official Cash Rate (2.75% from 2 September 2026; next scheduled update 28 October 2026, checked 22 October 2026)
• FindMyProperty.co.nz listings and analyses, morning of 22 October 2026 (passed, scored, and split by asking price as set out above)
• How we score NZ investment properties
• Why we focus on sub-$750k value-add
• NZ housing market, August 2026 — earlier count, 28 August 2026, not repeated here as current

This is not financial, legal, or tax advice. Cotality’s figures are general. FindMyProperty scores listed NZ houses and do-ups. It does not sell insurance. It does not score commercial property. It does not replace a valuer, a solicitor, or an accountant. The same Cotality pack puts residential property at $1.66 trillion across 1.74 million dwellings. The 48% share of household wealth is dated June 2024. That is context. It is not a reason to buy the median listing.